Forecasters split on midterms, but a sweep is possible, maybe likely

Forecasters say Democrats are favored to take the U.S. House this November while Republicans are favored to hold the Senate, yet the likeliest outcome is one party sweeping full control of Congress.

The split reflects two maps pulling in opposite directions: a House landscape tilted toward Democrats and a Senate field that favors Republicans. Yet Decision Desk HQ’s forecast finds that a divided Congress, while possible, is less likely than a clean sweep by either party.

Control of Congress is a means to a fiscal end. The majority sets the agenda on the tax provisions in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, on annual appropriations and the recurring threat of a shutdown, and on Social Security’s retirement trust fund, which the 2026 Social Security trustees report projects will run dry in 2032, triggering an automatic benefit cut of about 22% for some 62 million retirees and survivors unless Congress acts.

“The U.S. senators elected this fall will, for the first time, be requi...