With the U.S. now blockading the Strait of Hormuz, the focus is on who has ‘the guts to go through first’

Early on April 13, the oil tanker Rich Starry—loaded with Iranian crude and headed for China—made a dramatic U-turn. Instead of exiting the Strait of Hormuz, as it had planned, the ship joined a stationary flotilla of about 800 other vessels, including 400 oil and gas tankers, most of which have remained idle and stranded since late February.

“We have not seen any transits from tankers since the U.S. blockade began this morning,” said Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence for Vortexa, while noting the abrupt turnaround of the Rich Starry.

As peace talks between the U.S. and Iran fell apart over the weekend—although back-channel communication continues—President Donald Trump decided the U.S. would initiate its own blockade over the watery choke point through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas typically flows.

Instead of Iran letting through almost 10% of the normal traffic through a financial tolling system, traffic has for now been reduced to zero as oil prices spiked back above $100 per barrel on April 13.

Oil forecaster Dan Pickering said the question now is, “Who’s going to have the guts to go through first?”

“We now have two governments both claiming they control the right ...