One man can kill Bill Ackman’s $64 billion bid for Universal Music Group— and no one knows what he’ll do

Activist investor Bill Ackman has his sights set on Universal Music Group, and he’s launched a complex $64 billion proposal for the label behind Bad Bunny, Taylor Swift, Paul McCartney, and a long list of other superstars. 

To get his hands on the prize though, Ackman will first have to contend with another big personality: Vincent Bolloré, the 74-year-old secretive French billionaire who controls 28% of Universal through a complex web of holdings.

Known as the “French Murdoch” for building a $14 billion, right-leaning media empire stacked with family members and loyalists, Bolloré is a shrewd businessperson whose ascent to the top tiers of power is an object of fascination and awe in France and throughout Europe. 

“Nine times out of 10 when people are speculating about what Bolloré will do, they get it wrong,” said Nicolas Marmurek, a London-based analyst who specializes in M&A.

Bolloré’s stake in Universal Music Group (UMG), which effectively gives him veto power over any deal, sets the stage for a potentially epic showdown between two of the most powerful figures in the business world. Ackman is famous for fighting his way through deals; launching aggressive campaigns that invest in companies and force management...