Everyday Economics: Housing sets the stage, but the Fed, PCE are the main event

This week begins with housing, but the real macro story comes later: the Federal Reserve chair’s press conference and the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report.

The Case-Shiller home price index will likely confirm what Zillow’s data already showed: home-price growth has cooled. Because Case-Shiller is lagged by almost two months, it should mostly validate a slowdown that appeared earlier in Zillow’s more timely home value and market data. National home values are now mostly unchanged from a year ago, and Zillow expects prices to remain broadly flat by year-end as stronger inventory growth relative to sales weighs on appreciation. The exception remains supply-constrained markets. Milwaukee, Hartford, Buffalo, Cleveland, Chicago and New York have seen some of the strongest price growth over the past year.

The new construction report should tell a similar story from the builder side. Single-family permits and starts are expected to remain under pressure as builders face more competition ...