Dallas Fed says Texas’ employment was flat last year, contradicting state narrative

(The Center Square) – The Dallas Fed argues Texas’ employment for 2025 was “flat,” appearing to contradict state and federal employment data and claims made by the governor and state leaders.

“Texas employment was essentially flat in 2025,” Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist, said in an employment forecast. “Higher productivity suppressed labor demand, and slower immigration constrained supply. In addition, employers were more cautious about hiring as a result of high policy uncertainty. Job losses were observed across several sectors, including energy, manufacturing, government, information and professional and business services. Meanwhile, there were job gains in construction, education and health services, financial activities, and trade and transportation services.”

The Texas Leading Index dropped over a three-month period through December, “dragged down by declines in the real...